Monday Roundup - Fixing The Power Play

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 6:33 AM EST Comment 44 comments

With the sixth-rated power play in the League (22.5% successful), it might seem odd to discuss what's wrong with the unit. But "wrong" is a relative term, and with just three goals scored in 21 chances over the past five games, it's time to talk about it a bit.

First, a look at whose getting the PP minutes. The top five Caps skaters, in order of power-play ice time per game, are Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Sergei Fedorov. Three of those players - Green, Semin and Fedorov - have missed at least 13 games each due to injuries, and here's what the power play has done with and without them:

Player	PP w/	PP w/o
Green	20.5%	27.5%
Semin	18.9%	27.8%
Fedorov	17.3%	26.2%

Those aren't typos. The power play has been better - markedly so - in the absence of each of those players. In fact, the PP has been just 16.9% successful in games in which all three have played (15 games) and 26.7% in games that all three sat out.

One explanation for the differences with and without these incredibly skilled skaters is that the power play gets away from the basics of "shots and traffic" and turns into a highlight-seeking, marginally effective passing clinic. Psst... garbage goals make the highlights too, fellas. Which of these five is going to retrieve the puck on a dump in when the blueline is stacked? Which of these five is going to screen the goalie and crash the net?

On an unrelated personnel issue, you've probably noticed that one of the NHL's new rules this season was that following any penalty that creates an extra man situation, the ensuing faceoff is taken in the offensive zone for the team on the power play... which brings us to Nicklas Backstrom.

Backstrom has been positively brilliant on the power play this season, and only two players in the entire League have more PP points than young Nick. But he struggles in the faceoff circle. Backstrom has won 46.2% of his faceoffs on the season overall, and while he has won 49.6% of his PP draws, losing those key draws are killers. Enter Brooks Laich, who has won 54.3% of his PP faceoffs and 53.0% overall. Laich is also a guy who is willing to pay the price in front or in the corners on a dump in. Brooks Laich needs to be on the first power play unit, not seventh among forwards in extra man ice time.

For obvious reasons, AO, Green and Backstrom should stay on the first unit, and now that we have tapped Laich for the grunt work on that line, we need a fifth. The question, then, is whether that fifth should be a wing, leaving AO to play the left point, or someone to play that point and bump Ovi down to the halfboards. And while I'm not in love with Ovechkin on the point, I think it works if the forward added to the first unit is Viktor Kozlov.

Kozlov is another big body and is currently ninth in the League in points per sixty minutes of power play time (right behind Backstrom) and sixth in Goals For on Ice per 60. More importantly, when Kozlov happens to have the puck, he won't hoard it. The result of this alignment is a couple of shooters at the top of the zone, a couple of able passers (who can also score) on the wings, and a grunt in front doing his thing. No more over-passing - bombs away.

That would leave a second unit with Tomas Fleischmann, Michael Nylander and Semin up front, with Fedorov and Tom Poti on the blueline (though we all know the first unit pair will stay out there a while).

Another option would be putting Fedorov out on the point on the first unit (with Ovechkin moving down and Kozlov getting bumped), primarily as a more responsible player defensively, to try to negate shorthanded chances against, should the Caps run into a team in the Spring that is particularly proficient in that skill.

So that's what I've got. What do you want to see - more of the same or a bit of a change?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Do yourself a favor and go read this article from a year ago today. It holds up well, doesn't it?... Plenty of Caps-related talk at the SI mid-season round table (some of which Allan Muir expounds upon here, including a couple of repeat award winners).... If you never thought you'd see "Mike Green" and "Nancy Pelosi" in the same sentence (or restaurant), you were wrong.... John Carlson was December's OHL Rookie of the Month.... Today's Cap of the Day needs a hug.... Happy 31st birthday, Josef Boumedienne and happy 42nd, Ulf Dahlen.... Finally, two years ago today, we discussed the prospect of Ice Girls and whether or not Donald Brashear was doing his job, and three years ago today, we were talking about the greatest American players of all-time (still a favorite post of mine).

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Park Brooks in front. Keep AO on the point.

That’s all.

tictactoehockey.blogspot.com

by turnituptoeleven on Jan 12, 2009 6:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brilliant analysis, as usual

Backie needs some DHunter FO lessons.

by Uncle C on Jan 12, 2009 7:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

DaHunter. Dylan’s a Left Wing.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 13, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed on all counts.

Against teams that score a lot of SHG (PHL and MTL), I’d like to see the Caps play two D at the points, or at least 8 and 91. Those are likely playoff opponents, so I think the Caps should take a 4-5 game look at such a unit.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Jan 12, 2009 8:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Green gets beat just as easily. I think 2 defensemen would help, but I think the players we have on the PP just need to realize they have more responsibility when other teams are going to pressure. Add that to the fact that the Caps should have scouted who they are playing and know who will press and who won’t, and I don’t think giving up shorties repeatedly is an excuse ever.

by Chimaera on Jan 12, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think a PP that’s focused more on shooting and the simple things will have the added benefit of fewer shorthanded opportunities because there will be fewer forced cross-ice passes, which is often what gets this team in trouble.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 8:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know the PP is a concern, but...

I would like to suggest that the PK is probably the reason the team has significant issues down the road.

I’m fine with a 7th or 8th ranked PP. But a 25th PK doesn’t get it done. Suggestions on how we fix that are probably more critical than a PP retooling.

While I think it is an interesting discussion (to Green or not to Green?) or whatever you want to argue on removing, but I think some of the issues with the PP stems more from the inconsistency of the lineup and the lack of assertiveness from some players at times that cause more trouble than any mix in personnel. However, one of the things I do note is the fact that when Semin’s on the PP, he seems to want to run it through him. I don’t know that it is best for the team, even when it has resulted in some easier goals.

by Chimaera on Jan 12, 2009 8:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree that the PK is a bigger problem than the PP, Chimaera, but I think the PP is more easily correctable right now. The important point here is that I think we’d all be fine with a 7th or 8th ranked PP, but with Semin, Feds and Green in the lineup, it’s nowhere close to that good for some reason (and I think we’re starting to agree that that reason may be #28, as skilled as he is). I also think there’s value in having a strong second PP unit.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m in agreement that the PP is more correctable at this point.

But I’m not in agreement that it is what they should be focusing on. The PP can be good with little tweaking. That’s not a difficult process. But the PK needs an overhaul and they need to start on it sooner rather than later. being in the high 20s for PK numbers is just plain unacceptable for a playoff team of any note.

They have basically let the PK numbers go by the wayside in the past few seasons, when that’s probably as big of an issue as anything else. Taking extra penalties compounds the issue, but until it is fixed, I have qualms about anointing this team as anything more than one series and done this Spring.

That might be negative, and it might be hard to fix due to the personnel in house, but it can’t be impossible to fix. I mean, if quickness is the issue in the lineup in the PK then get Bourque here and send someone out.

I just think they figure that the PK is going to be bad until the defensemen and forwards all get to know each other for a while and that Theo needs to get to know his defensive pairings better before it all shakes down.

by Chimaera on Jan 12, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said here. I didn’t mean to imply that I think the PP is the biggest concern for the team right now – it’s just what I felt like writing about for today.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No worries. :)

I enjoyed it anyhow!

by Chimaera on Jan 12, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you on PK being the biggest glaring hole, but I don’t care about league rank – I want it at LEAST above whatever the average power play rating is. That makes it an “Above Average” PK as related to PP. At a quick glance, we’re at 79.6. That’d be ONE-TENTH of a point behind Pittsburgh’s. It’s also only 4 percentage points behind the 8th best PK. However, a quick glance tells me the league average at converting PP’s is around 19.6. That being the case, I’d be happy with a PK% of about 81%. Would we be better if it were higher? Well, duh. But, I can be pleased. You’re right that it’s a bigger problem than our PP. I’d rather be last in PP and first in PK.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 13, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PK the key!

1) Exactly! While it would be nice to see a PP running 1st and at 30% efficiency, and we agree that there needs to be some personnel alteration to maximize its efficiency, the more troubling stat is the Caps PK. It should be better than it is.

2) From watching quite a few of their games they seem to play too passively on the PK. teams that are aggressive like the rangers/Wild, have the better PK numbers. The problem is the players Boudreau has on the PK (Gordon, Steckel, Bradley) don’t have the wheels to play that kid of strategy.

by Fauxrumors on Jan 12, 2009 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree.

I’d like to see a more aggressive PK, and do think that we’re too passive on the PK. We play best when we’re aggressive and don’t give the other team time to set up or think, and the PK is no exception – the few times we’ve gone to an aggressive PK this year, it’s worked out great guns.

by gotsparkly on Jan 12, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t agree with that. 15, 39 and 10 have plenty of wheels to make two strides toward the blue line to challenge the points/perimeter a bit more. It’s just not what WSH does. I don’t think that the NYR Fs or the NSH Fs or the MIN Fs have appreciably more speed between the tops-of-the-circles and the blue line than the Caps’ Fs.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Jan 12, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Penalty killing is much more about quickness and anticipation than it is raw speed, which is why Alex Semin has been effective there – he’s quick. Stecks, Gordo and Bradley aren’t the quickest bunch (Bradley, by contrast, is fast), but they get by. Most of the D’s aren’t quick at all.

I agree that it’s not what the Caps do, but I’m not sure they can play a much more aggressive style. They need to use long reaches (Stecks, Schultz, Poti, etc.) to block passing lanes. If they start chasing pucks, they’re in trouble.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Apropos of nothing, it says a lot about the Washington Post that they continue to refuse to link to this blog. This is the smartest thing written anywhere about the Caps in WEEKS, and the Post won’t link to it. Pathetic.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Jan 12, 2009 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You know what really kills me about the Post? After the backhanded attempts at coverage we get from everywhere except Tarik, and the nonsense you see most of the time, they’ve stawrted to try to sell Post subscriptions at the home games. How much nerve does that take?

by gotsparkly on Jan 12, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the Caps should respond by trying to sell season tickets in Tom Boswell’s cubicle.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Jan 12, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Be realistic Tyler. Boswell’s been a columnist for the Post for almost 25 years. Dude has to have an office by now.

by DMG on Jan 12, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know that I’d go that far (after all, what I wrote about Alzner was pretty smart :)), but thanks.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps it’s the overly-critical cynic in me, but I seem to recall the lack of a strong presence in front of the net as a chronic problem with the Caps’ PP for quite some time. In fact, I can specifically recall an NHL 2Nite segment from about 10 years ago on the Caps’ PP woes and they showed footage from several different games that season, none of which included anyone in front of the net…just lots of attempting fancy passing.

by Kerry Fraser's Hairspray on Jan 12, 2009 9:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ovechkin on the point

I took a friend of mine to a game a year ago, and he commented that he didn’t agree with putting Ovechkin on the point on the PP. I argued that it was actually a good idea, for two reasons. 1) Playing the point on the PP is less physically taxing than playing down low, so it allows Ovechkin to skate the entire PP. 2) Ovechkin is ridiculously good at keeping the puck in the zone.

Now, the corollaries to this debate are: do you want two true power play “units,” and can any player, regardless of skill and conditioning, be effective for two minutes straight? There’s a whole fanpost or two behind the latter question, but the former is more pertinent here. having two true “units” would allow those units to practice and play together with more frequency, but it might result in reduced PP time for players like Backstrom, Green, Semin and Ovechkin.

by D'ohboy on Jan 12, 2009 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also, looks like the Mike Green / Nancy Pelosi link is broken.

by Kerry Fraser's Hairspray on Jan 12, 2009 10:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fixed, thanks. And you weren’t missing much when it was broken…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I won’t click on a fucking thing that has the words “Nancy Pelosi” in it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 13, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting, however:

1) You will never convince me that Mike Green should not be on the power-play. Ever.

2) Perhaps the solution is coaching/strategy more than personnel. Although I don’t see the reason for Feds to be on the PP, we have that covered pretty well.

by macvechkin on Jan 12, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 1) I didn’t say that Mike Green should not be on the power-play. Ever.

Re: 2) I think it’s a combination of both – Gabby can talk all he wants about shooting and getting traffic, but with certain personnel combinations out there, it just doesn’t happen.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And more to the point; Gabby should KNOW that shooting and traffic don’t happen with certain combo’s of players. I mean the rest of us can see it, right?

by wittcap79 on Jan 12, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well i know you didn’t say it, but the first row sure did. my point only was that you remove Mike Green from this discussion and i think you concur. i am open to debate on the other two, as well as the strategy. i didn’t see anyone complaining about ovie on the point when this pp was humming, I don’t mind him at the point but would be ok with seeing how moving him around goes.

by macvechkin on Jan 12, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If I didn’t put that stat up there, it would’ve been dishonest – someone would have rightly asked, “Hey, what about with and without Green?”

And I did say “For obvious reasons, AO, Green and Backstrom should stay on the first unit…”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

d00d

I get it. There also was/is discussion by others regarding the Green question and I was agreeing with you.

by macvechkin on Jan 12, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry if I came off as defensive – one of those days…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it’s cool, brother.

by macvechkin on Jan 12, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

GOOD CALL

You got one of your wishes JP- from tarik:

The unit that received the most time in practice had Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin up front and Fedorov and Green on the points.

Ovy down low-Fed up top. good call JP.

-shwedy

by shwedy on Jan 12, 2009 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good Call

I was at practice and the first PP unit had Ovie parked in front of the net! They were going through 5 on 4’s and Ovie had a couple of goals from right in front of Jose. It seemed that his quickness (hands and feet) was causing headaches for the D-men.
Also, Pothier was working the point on the second unit. I ’ve heard nothing about him playing this year. Anyone else hear different?

by Feeshbate on Jan 12, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps he was just standing in for Poti if 3’s groin was still bothering him?

by Kerry Fraser's Hairspray on Jan 12, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

from the year old article...

“Ovechkin may well help to sell more of the Capitals’ safety-cone-coloured sweaters. But it’s doubtful he’ll help spur the NHL’s popularity across the U.S.”

I’m confused…are Safety cones red in Canada, or does Rick Westhead (heh heh…head) have the same trouble telling red and orange apart that Pierre McGuire had last year in the playoffs?

by Sombrero Guy on Jan 12, 2009 5:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great point, Sombrero Guy. Btw, I think I saw you at the leafs game coming out of a bathroom stall, otherwise I would have said hi. You also looked kinda pissed.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 13, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If he just came out of a bathroom stall, one thinks “pissed” should probably be involved there.

by gotsparkly on Jan 13, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a very fair point.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 13, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My two cents: At least TRY Ovechkin down low as a forward for the power play for a couple games. Edmonton would be perfect. Even if he doesn’t play the whole 2 minutes…it’s way more effective to have him in great position for a minute than bad position for two.

Swing by The Flyer Frequent if you have nothing better to do.

by Ben Rothenberg on Jan 12, 2009 8:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

We act as if Ovi didn’t lead the League in power play goals last season (mostly from the point)…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 12, 2009 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What I don't understand...

During the broadcast of the Montreal game, JoeB said to Locker “..you and Boudreau discovered some interesting statistics about the powerplay…” and went on to briefly discuss the stats you show in the post. What I can’t understand is why Bruce keeps rolling those guys out together when he knows the PP is less effective that way. I mean, he’s the reigning Jack Adams winner and i’m not, but it seems pretty obvious to me that they shouldn’t do that any more. Numbers don’t lie (well, sometimes they do, but we’re not talking about Enron’s financial statements here)….

by TJA on Jan 12, 2009 8:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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