Tuesday Roundup
by J.P. on Dec 9, 2008 6:30 AM EST
30 comments
It's no secret that through 28 games, the Caps haven't gotten their money's worth out of the guy they expected to be their number one goalie. Heading into last night's games, Jose Theodore was 38th in the League in goals against average and 41st in save percentage among goalies with enough appearances to qualify. His teammate Brent Johnson was 23rd and 20th, respectively, in those categories.
Here are their aggregate numbers on the season:
The numbers favor Johnson heavily on the surface, but let's go a little deeper.
Goal Support
One of the reasons many believed at the outset of the season that Theodore had a good chance to succeed in D.C. is that the team in front of him would score a ton of goals, thereby providing a bit more room for error than he might have had in the past. Sure enough, the Caps are one of the highest scoring teams in the League, and Jose has been a recipient of that outpouring of offense, receiving 3.31 goals of support per start; Johnson has gotten just 2.92 goals per game of offense in his starts. It may have been the offense on Sunday, but it hasn't been on other nights.
Quality of Opponents
It's still early enough in the season where one or two games against top (or bottom) teams can impact one's stats significantly. The teams against whom Theodore has started have a combined 183-141-43 record (a .499 points percentage), while the teams against whom Johnson has started have a combined 139-115-39 record (a .474 points percentage). Not counting the games against the Caps, Jose's opponents are scoring 2.85 goals per game while Johnson's are averaging 2.78. So Johnny has faced easier competition, but not by much.
Home vs. Road
The Caps have a 5-9-2 record away from the VC so far this season, and on many of those nights, the team's energy level was lacking. On other nights, extended travel and/or injuries caught up with them. Whatever the reason, they've been a different team on the road, and that's where Theodore has 62.5% of his starts; Johnson, on the other hand, has split his 12 starts right down the middle between home and road. Of course, there is a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg aspect to that road record and the goalies of record in them as well.
Scheduling
The Caps have had five sets of back-to-back games so far (check out Peerless on this point), and Theodore has started two of these typically more difficult games. The team has also had three games in four nights five times, with Theodore starting two of those.
Stealing and Blowing Games
Theodore is 6-0-1 when the Caps score four or more goals, 0-4-0 when they score two or fewer. In my book, he's blown one game (you shouldn't be losing on nights when you get four goals, much less the five he actually go), and has stolen one (I'll call winning a game with two or fewer non-empty net goals of support a stolen win, and one of his wins that doesn't appear here - a 3-1 win over Jersey - fits that criteria). Johnson is 4-1-0 when the Caps score four or more and 1-3-1 when they score two or fewer - one blown game (though one was Opening Night and really was a shared blow, um, job) and two steals (Toronto on Saturday and a 3-1 win with an empty netter against the Rangers).
Bottom Line
So what does all of this tell us about the goaltending situation in our nation's capital? That Jose Theodore has drawn some tougher assignments than Brent Johnson (both in terms of opponents and location), but has gotten more goal support than his teammate. Johnson has been much more dependable (Theodore's longest stretch of consecutive starts without yielding four goals is four, and he hasn't had three consecutive sub-four starts since October; Johnson's is, well, every game this season except one), and for all of the talk about Theodore's inconsistency, it sure would be nice for a few more of the "really good" starts to be sprinkled in with the "really bad" ones.
All of that isn't to say Theodore won't be consistently good at some point. It's just to say that he hasn't been.
Elsewhere 'Round The Rinks
It doesn't sound like Alex Semin is any closer to returning, does it?... Weekly power rankings are up at SportingNews.com (where the Caps are down four spots to 12th), The Hockey News (where they're down four to 13th) and CBSSports.com (where they're down three to ninth).... Cap of the Day: Jaroslav Svejkovsky.... A few weeks ago, we posted about our favorite pucks. If I had this sitting on my desk, it'd be number one.... The Atlantic has an interesting piece on Jaromir Jagr. I don't want to spoil it for you, but Andrew Sullivan doesn't believe Jagr is in Russia, since there are no hospital records evidencing that so-called "fact."... A fellow J.P. weighs in on the Top Ten Hockey Books of 2008.... Finally, SB Nation has added yet another top hockey blog to the roster in Battle of California. Earl and Rudy are two of my favorite bloggers, so stop by and check 'em out if you enjoy cartoons and cursing, respectively.
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Excellent summary. What the stats seem to indicate is that JT, much like the team he plays behind, has been maddeningly inconsistent. I know injuries aren’t an excuse, but it’s hard to get into a rhythm when the musicians keep changing. I’d like to see a further breakdown of his good games to see who was playing that day. That said, would I feel comfortable going into the playoffs with Theo as the #1 goalie? No way, Jose, but I’m reserving final judgement until this team, or at least the defense, gets healthy. The one hope I hold out is that his numbers so far are not even close to what he did last season in Colorado. I don’t think he forgot to play goal over the summer.
by b.orr4 on Dec 9, 2008 8:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I know injuries aren’t an excuse, but it’s hard to get into a rhythm when the musicians keep changing.
Agreed, but Johnny’s gotten into one playing with the same band, no?
Oh, and +1 on “No way, Jose”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 9, 2008 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnny’s been here three years. At least he knows the tendencies of some of the guys. Not so for Theo, he’s brand new to everyone and then once he starts getting comfortable with certain players they go on IR. That’s not the sole reason for JT’s erratic play, but you have to consider that it’s at the minimum a contributing factor.
by b.orr4 on Dec 9, 2008 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, though it’s hard to quantify. We’ve all seen JT60 and his D fail to communicate. But I gotta think that by the quarter-pole some of that’s gotta go away.
by TylerG on Dec 9, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do think the lack of communication has hurt a couple times on those goals that start from behind the cage. this isn’t to excuse him from making the save, but being confident in what your d-men will do or not do in that situation can make life for the goalie much easier.
by nuftjedi on Dec 9, 2008 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On that same note and the idea of certain guys being better suited for certain teammates and system: Johnson has a .911 save percentage since Boudreau took over. What’s equally impressive is that, aside from the opener in Atlanta where he came on in relief and the game against San Jose, Johnson’s has save percentages over .900 for all of his appearances this season.
by David M. Getz on Dec 9, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yogi!
Currently ‘Assistant Coach’ at the South Delta Hockey Academy in BC: http://web.deltasd.bc.ca/programs/academies/hockey-academy/coaching-profiles
by Uncle C on Dec 9, 2008 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yogi
Has anyone scored more goals in one game against Dominik Hasek than him?
by Whiter Mage on Dec 9, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was actually at that game in Buffalo. Sweet.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 9, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose it’s worth noting that Huet, the Caps’ ‘other’ option, isn’t playing any better. Huet is 29th in save percentage and 25th in GAA.
by TylerG on Dec 9, 2008 9:25 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
How long will this Netminding Kvetching go on?
We are decimated by injuries, we are up against the salary cap, we have more Hershey Bears playing in the Verizon Center then they have playing in HERSHEY, we are 10 days away from the Holiday Roster Freeze, our minor league goalies are promising but not ready for the NHL and there are no viable alternatives currently on the market. (The closest thing I’ve heard is that Boston may look to shop Fernandez late in the season to plug any potential holes for a playoff push)
Goalies have been going down injured all over the league (Brodeur, Fleury, Luongo, Giguere, DiPietro, Smith, LeClaire, Legace, Biron, Ward, etc) so anyone that has a decent backup (Mason, Hiller, Sabourin, etc) is KEEPING them.
So can we stop analyzing every sliced and diced goalie stat sheet like its the Rosetta Stone looking for some secret hidden key about why we are struggling to keep pucks out of our own net?
We do not have a league-leading goaltender. Yes. We get that. I think we all agree. I wish it were otherwise; but its not. Now let’s try to move on, shall we?
by Wisper on Dec 9, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You’re right. Fans and writers should not analyze the team or its performance. Let us all stand in a circle and sing songs of joy and togetherness. Perhaps Sami Lepisto will lead us.
by TylerG on Dec 9, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Analyzing the team" suggests an actual level of analysis
not repetitive “Theo is the problem”-“No its the D”-“No its the injuries”-“No its Theo” circle jerking.
Just seems a bit one-dimensional after a few posts days weeks…maybe its just me.
by Wisper on Dec 9, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I counted three dimensions there. And it’s the stuff that’s impacting the team’s performance. Why would we not talk about it?
by TylerG on Dec 9, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree about the monotonous wailing
but I think it’s the analysis that IS being done here that provides perspective to consider while they wail. When you have 7 starters out for multiple games and the team is up and down, yeah, you’re gonna get a lot of bitching and moaning. But I don’t see a lot of “circle-jerking” on this site from regular posters (aside from the trade-Nyls cadre). Treat yourself to many of the cats-and-dogs posts at WP if you want to see what the truly uninformed blather about.
…and with all of that out of the way, I would like to see BB give Johnny another run of 6-7 games to re-establish himself as our go-to guy. Fuck Theo and his bad goals at critical junctures and his ping pong rebound control. Bruce has already shown that he cares not for who is supposed to be the “#1” guy, and I think he’s itching for ANYONE to step up and just be consistent. Hell, bring up Varlamov for a week and see if he can get the job done.
by bigonetimer on Dec 9, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know about 6-7 games, that’s a lot to start in a row for anyone. But 4-5 in a row, 6 out of 7, 8 out of 10, something like I can see.
I don’t have a ton of faith in Johnson’s ability to step it up and be a true number one but then again, it’s not that uncommon for goalies to suddenly “figure it out” later in their careers. Look at Tim Thomas, Dan Ellis, Niklas Backstrom, or Ty Conklin. Heck, even Brian Boucher has re-emerged as a solid goalie later in his career.
by David M. Getz on Dec 9, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and it is a contract year for Johnny...
probably his last shot at a decent one.
by bigonetimer on Dec 9, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Touche
The WaPo comment posts are intolerable. If I see one more “I think we’re actually better without Mike Green” post I may be forced to gouge my own eyes out with a letter opener.
And I will readily admit much of the analysis here is absolutely first-rate: Some of the potential Nyls-Byf trade scoops, the recent observation about Ovie’s PIMs was a good catch, the theory and accompanying video about Ovie’s long-absent backhand on Penalty Shots. There’s been some great stat-crunching about line-pairings and potential line-pairings.
And frankly, JP’s Salary Cap breakdown, particularly how it effects who is or isn’t called up from Hershey was something that should have been published in the Post and/or Times. If there are any sports reporters reading this, take note: THAT is what we mean by local team coverage. Reprinting the box score with a post-game throwaway quote from the coach is not exactly “in depth”.
I think we will see more of Johnny. Bruce has to do something and his options are limited. I don’t think Varlamov gets a call barring a goalie injury. Truthfully, I think the kid would get shell shocked if he had to play against a decent shooting team in the majors. Let him keep working……
by Wisper on Dec 9, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reinforcements?
According to Tarik, Semin, Green, Poti and Fehr all practiced fully today. Wouldn’t it be nice to have all of them ready for Boston?
by b.orr4 on Dec 9, 2008 12:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
per that like to ovetjkin, semin has a pinched nerve and isn’t coming back until he’s 100. i highly doubt that is tomorrow. as far as him needing to wait until it’s 100, i’m ok with that. this rash of injuries has made our regular season a little different than we were expecting. the only concerns are #1, winning the SE division (god it would have been nice to put carolina 8 pts back) and #2, be as healthy as possible for the playoffs. i don’t care about anything else; stats, trophies, which goalie plays. if i’m BB i will ride the hot hand regardless of whom it is. it is pretty ironic that the year johnny finally (FINALLY) puts his ass in gear, we have a lame #1 goalie. sheesh.
by macvechkin on Dec 9, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope Olie is Happy
The link that JP posted to the Barry Melrose quote is a must-read. Holy Crap, what a circus that’s become down there. I would say I feel sorry for Olie, but he brought this on himself by signing with those jokers. I bet being a backup here looks pretty good right about now.
by b.orr4 on Dec 9, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
…being a backup here looks pretty good right about now.
maybe for olie, but not so much for us. :-)
by macvechkin on Dec 9, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, he’d propbably be the starter now…. Ooooh, I just got a chill down my back.
by b.orr4 on Dec 9, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What a cluster**** down there!
The new coach is actually thinking about designing a system around EIGHT GUYS? Wow… that is a hardcore call-out to the level of effort, talent and professionalism to everyone else wearing Blue & Silver.
Dear Lazy/Inept Tampa Bay Players: Your coach would rather lose then rely on you.
by Wisper on Dec 9, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Would we rather have Chris Osgood, or the defense that plays in front of him right now?
by hotdog88gt on Dec 9, 2008 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nick Lidstrom? I’d “settle” for just him. I went off about Osgood yesterday, how he’s proven that he can elevate his game in the playoffs, but that’s a no-doubter.
by bigonetimer on Dec 9, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
|
Atlanta
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
|
Florida
|
19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 18 |
|
Carolina
|
21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.20.2009 at 9:16 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
