Your Best Penalty Killer

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2008 3:49 PM EST Comment 6 comments

As cliche as it is, there's truth to the old hockey-ism that in order to survive shorthanded, a team's goalie must be its best penalty killer. Given how poorly the Caps' penalty kill has performed on the season, one would assume that their goaltenders haven't been up to the task when a man (or men) down. Let's take a closer look at that assumption.

Per Behindthenet, 51 goalies have appeared in at least ten NHL games so far this season, including Brent Johnson and Jose Theodore, and here's how the top four-on-five goals against averages shake out, with the median (26th ranked) and locals thrown in for the sake of comparison:

1) Pekka Rinne, 1.31
2) Ryan Miller, 3.28
3) Nicklas Backstrom, 3.55
4) Henrik Lundqvist, 3.87
5) Jason LaBarbera, 3.99
26) Dan Ellis, 6.44
38) Jose Theodore, 7.70
43) Brent Johnson, 8.37

Ouch. Now a look at the four-on-five save percentage leaders, with our median and locals thrown in (not surprisingly, it's a similar group):

1) Pekka Rinne, .944
2) Niklas Backstrom, .932
3) Ryan Miller, .925
4) Henrik Lundqvist, .915
5) Tim Thomas, .909
26) Chris Mason, .850
30) Brent Johnson, .848
42) Jose Theodore, .815

Finally, to provide a little more context, here's a look at fewest shots faced per sixty minutes of four-on-four hockey, with our familiar group of subjects:

1) Pekka Rinne, 23.6
2) Martin Gerber, 31
3) Martin Brodeur, 32
4) Steve Mason, 34
5) Marty Turco, 34 (it's good to be a Marty, I suppose)
18) Jose Theodore, 41.6
26) Roberto Luongo, 44.5
51) Brent Johnson, 55

So Brent Johnson has faced an absolute ton of rubber shorthanded, far more than his teammate (likely the result of Johnson getting the bulk of the playing time since the team has been so decimated by injuries), but neither netminder has been very good shorthanded. At all. The defense (forwards and blueliners), of course, share the blame for the Caps' poor penalty killing, but the goalies are the ones who get tagged with these ugly numbers, and perhaps rightly so - they should be, after all, the team's best penalty killers. So far this season, the Capitals' goalies - and the penalty kill on the whole - have not been good enough.

Oh, and since you're bound to ask - in the incredibly small two-game sample we're been privilege to, Simeon Varlamov posted a 3.04 GAA and .917 save percentage (36.5 shots faced per sixty) four-on-five. Anyone interested in seeing that sample size increased?

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Comments

1) Pekka Rinne, 1.31

that’s a helluva mark for a piece of cheese…

by bigonetimer on Dec 22, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A post full of statistical goodness and I get one comment making a bad cheese joke? You guys are in trouble…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2008 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

1) If neither Johnson nor T60 start to play like a true # 1 you might see Simeon back up with the big club. Although the organization probably would prefer he stay where he is for the season. Additionally it probably creates a problem salary cap wise. Wouldn’t want to be the team ‘capologist’!

by Fauxrumors on Dec 22, 2008 8:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

actually the salary cap really isn’t that big of an impediment to him being here, he only makes 800k. that could be finessed.

what sucks is paying 4.5 mil to a goalie who stinks on rye. at least he’s likely to improve next year while playing for another contract.

by macvechkin on Dec 22, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1) Simeon may only make 800K base salary, but his bonuses can add up another mil or two and those are calculated into a cap figure. This is why Alzner wasn’t on the opening night roster

by Fauxrumors on Dec 23, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alzner was a Top 5 pick, Varlamov a late first rounder – their bonuses are not even close to the same (i.e. there’s no way Varlamov has two million dollars in potential bonuses when Alzner has less than one million). Varlamov’s contract – even with bonuses (if any) – is very manageable.

The bigger problem is the limited number of available roster spots with guys who are day-to-day rather than on IR taking up room.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 23, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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