Using The FCF To Predict The First Round

For those of you who have been reading The Rink for a while, you'll recall the Former Cap Factor (FCF), a prognosticating tool (something I'd never call my buddy Peerless, by the way) used to determine the results of playoff series before they happen.

In the two playoff years since its inception, the FCF has correctly predicted the eventual outcome of 24 of 30 playoff series, a remarkable 80% success rate (take that, TSN monkey - Maggie, not Darren Pang). A quick refresher on how it works:
  1. If one team has a former Caps' General Manager at the helm, that team is most likely to lose a given series.
  2. If neither (or both) team(s) has a former Caps' General Manager and one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
  3. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
  4. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
  5. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
  6. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.
  7. If the teams have the same number of former Capital draft picks, the team with the fewer Capitals ties among assistant coaches/advisors/etc. is most likely going to win any given series.
Got it? Good. Without further ado, then, the FCF predicts the first round of the NHL playoffs. We begin in the East:
  • Montreal (1) vs. Boston (8) - The Habs have no former Caps. The B's have Glen Metropolit. Au revoir, Boston.
  • Pittsburgh (2) vs. Ottawa (7) - The Pens' roster features Sergei Gonchar and Kris Beech, and while the Sens did dress Lawrence Nycholat for three games this year and Bryan Murray is both their coach and GM, the FCF says bet the upset.
  • Washington (3) vs. Philadelphia (6) - I have no idea how this works when current Caps are involved, so we're not going to predict this one, though the Flyers' former-Caplessness makes me a little nervous.
  • New Jersey (4) vs. New York Rangers (5) - Dainius Zubrus played 331 games for the Caps, Jaromir Jagr was only in uniform for 190 (and actually played in far fewer). To top it off, Devil blueliner Johnny Oduya was a Caps draft pick. The Rangers win the series.
And in the West:
  • Detroit (1) vs. Nashville (8) - Is David Poile still the GM in Nashville? Yes? They're going down.
  • San Jose (2) vs. Calgary (7) - Mike Grier played for the Caps, Ron Wilson coached 'em. Calgary is clean... and advancing.
  • Minnesota (3) vs. Colorado (6) - Minny's Chris Simon played 320 games for the Caps, they have the brother of a Caps prospect, a Niklas Backstrom and a defenseman named Schultz who wears #55. Colorado's Andrew Brunette played 62 games for the Caps. Yet another upset predicted by the FCF.
  • Anaheim (4) vs. Dallas (5) - Brian Sutherby's tenure in D.C. was greater (in games played, at least) than Nolan Baumgartner's. This is the real reason the Stars traded Jeff Halpern at the trade deadline. Dallas wins.
So the FCF predicts five upsets in seven series. Perhaps the current Caps actually being in the playoffs is making the FCF go haywire. Either that or we're in for a very interesting first round. Bottom line: bet now, thank the FCF later.

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