Mounds And Mounds Of Rebounds

by J.P. on Mar 6, 2008 6:39 PM EST Comment 0 comments

"Every rebound is a personal challenge." - Dennis Rodman

Science may have purported to conclusively show that Olie Kolzig's reflexes are cat-like, but your eyes (and this blog) have told you all year that the cat ain't as quick as he used to be. And while his save percentage is a decent indicator of that, The Forechecker has another great metric for confirming what we already knew - Olie's simply not as spry as he used to be.

Now, before we dive into the numbers, recognize that these stats are team goaltending stats and as Olie has played roughly three-quarters of the overall minutes in net, he's only responsible for roughly three-quarters of the stats... in theory.

That said, let's cut directly to the chase: no team in the NHL has allowed a higher rebound shooting percentage against than the Caps (and it's not even close). According to the stats at On The Forecheck, 39.6% of the rebound shots (a "shot within two seconds of a previous shot on goal") that Caps goalies have faced have been put home (Los Angeles is second worst at 34.7%; Chicago is best at 17.7%).

As far as raw numbers go, the Caps are in the middle of the pack (15th) in rebound shots allowed, but have allowed the third-most rebound goals (40) tied with Florida and behind only Toronto (41) and L.A. (50). If Caps goalies had just an average rebound save percentage - 72.22% - they would have surrendered 12 fewer goals on the season so far. Are there standings points in those 12 goals? Who knows?

Enough numbers - what does it all mean?

To me, it's a pretty clear indication of either an inability of Caps goalies to recover from making an initial save to being well-positioned for a second save and/or an inability to steer rebounds into areas from which follow-up shots are less dangerous. To be sure, other factors are at play here - the blueliners' and backcheckers' ability to hinder follow-up shots, etc. - but this serves as decent confirmation that Caps goalies are giving up juicy rebounds into prime scoring areas and/or are failing to get back in position to make a second stop after denying an initial shot.

What it also means is that Caps goalies and defenseman aren't allowing an abnormally large number of rebound shots, contrary to what I had expected to find. So that's something good... right?

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Southeast Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Washington Japers' Rink	71	47	14	10	104
Atlanta Bird Watchers Anonymous	70	30	29	11	71
Tampa Bay Raw Charge	70	28	30	12	68
Florida Litter Box Cats	69	28	30	11	67
Carolina Canes Country	70	29	33	8	66