Offseason Shopping List: Centers

Let's go shopping, shall we? It's no secret that the Caps will be in the market for a first-line center this offseason, and should they choose to go the free agent route to fill that hole, there are a number of options out there. Unfortunately, that number is three or four. Who are they and who would be the best fit? Let's see.

First, a look at likely market conditions. In the offseason leading up to the 2006-07 season, teams were working with a $44 million salary cap. The top (unrestricted) free agent centers available were Marc Savard, Jason Arnott, Doug Weight, Eric Lindros, Mike Sillinger... and Jeff Halpern. A quick look at the deals each got:

• Savard (28 years old at signing): 5 years, $20 million ($4 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 28-69-97
  
• Arnott (31): 5 years, $22.5 million ($4.5 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 32-44-76
  
• Weight (35): 2 years, $7 million ($3.5 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 15-42-57
• Lindros (33): 1 year, $1.55 million ($2.5 million with performance bonuses); 2005-06 stats: 11-11-22
• Sillinger (35): 3 years, $6.6 million ($2.2 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 32-31-63
  
• Halpern (30): 4 years, $8 million ($2 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 11-33-44
  

Now, that's a pretty weak (certainly shallow) class of centers - a couple of old guys, a few injury-prone guys and a checker. Compare that to this year's top-five UFAs (in no particular order): Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Chris Drury (hey, look - a UFA reunion of the Avs' Cup team pivots!), Daniel Briere, Pavel Datsyuk and Scott Gomez. I included six guys because Sakic might as well not be a UFA, as he's not going anywhere (so we can stop talking about him, though his contract will impact the market). That leaves us with one old, injury-prone guy and four guys - none of whom is over 30 years old - who have combined to win four Stanley Cups and two Calder Trophies.

I think we can all agree that the Caps will not pursue Peter Forsberg (though in Dreamworld he centers the 2007-08 Caps' first-line, has 100 assists and mentors fellow Swede Nicklas Backstrom to a Calder Trophy-winning rookie season before retiring after being handed the Stanley Cup by Olie Kolzig in late-May in front of 18,277 people at Verizon Center... sigh). So we're talking about "the big four." Given the ages of each of the four, I can't see any of them signing a contract for fewer than four years. Most likely, each will get a five-year deal. But at what price?

For 2007-08, the salary cap is expected to rise to between $46 and $47.5 million, but for the ease of this exercise, let's call it $48 million, a 9% increase over 2006-07. It would stand to reason that the top free agents, then, will cost around 9% more than they did last offseason (of course this assumes that some other factors, such as supply of and demand for these players holds constant, but again, pinpoint accuracy isn't important here). Add in the ages and accolades of the players we're talking about, and the price goes up further. In other words, get ready to shell out around $5 million - bare-minimum - for the next five years. So who's worth that much? A look at "the big four" (stats through 2 March 2007):

• Daniel Briere
• DOB: October 6, 1977
  
• Nationality: Canadian
  
• 2006-07 salary: $5,000,000
  
• Honors and Awards: 2007 NHL All-Star
  
• 2006-07 stats: 62 GP, 27-50-77
  
• Career regular season stats: 464 GP, 157-201-358
  
• Career playoff stats: 24 GP, 10-12-22
  
• Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 290/328
  
• Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Great combination of- oh, forget it.
  
• Why he's not: If you have to ask...
  
• Pavel Datsyuk
• DOB: July 20, 1978
  
• Nationality: Russian
  
• 2006-07 salary: $3,900,000
  
• Honors and Awards: 2002 Olympic Bronze Medal, 2002 Stanley Cup, 2004 NHL All-Star, 2006 Lady Byng Trophy
  
• 2006-07 stats: 61 GP, 19-46-65
  
• Career regular season stats: 345 GP 100-206-306
  
• Career playoff stats: 42 GP 3-12-15
  
• Games played over the last four NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 284/328
  
• Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Datsyuk is a great passer, a dangler that makes the highlight reels as often as the guy he'd ostensibly be setting up in D.C. - a true #1 center. Oh, and he's Russian.
  
• Why he's not: He has pulled disappearing acts in the playoffs (playoffs? what are they), and is so weak in the faceoff circle that his linemate, Henrik Zetterberg, takes more draws than he does (yet somehow Datsyuk has won 56% of his 500 faceoffs - I'll take it).
  
• Chris Drury
• DOB: August 20, 1976
  
• Nationality: American
  
• 2006-07 salary: $3,154,000
  
• Honors and Awards: 1998 Hobey Baker Award, 1999 Calder Trophy, 2001 Stanley Cup, 2002 Olympic Silver Medal
  
• 2006-07 stats: 60 GP, 33-24-57
  
• Career regular season stats: 611 GP, 189-263-452
  
• Career playoff stats: 98 GP, 35-33-68
  
• Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 390/410
  
• Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Drury is a proven winner (he even won a Little League World Series). More than that, he's a great faceoff guy, taking the seventh most draws in the League and winning an outstanding 59% of them (only Rod Brind'Amour and Yanic Perreault are better among center with 100 or more faceoffs). Finally, with the lowest 2006-07 salary of the four, he may be the cheapest come July.
  
• Why he's not: He's a bit more of a goal-scorer than a playmaker, which doesn't necessarily fit what the Caps are looking for in a first-line pivot. In fact, ideally he's better-suited as a second-line center.
  
• Scott Gomez
• DOB: December 23, 1979
  
• Nationality: American
  
• 2006-07 salary: $5,000,000
  
• Honors and Awards: 2000 Calder Trophy, 2000 Stanley Cup, 2003 Stanley Cup
• 2006-07 stats: 56 GP, 10-40-50
  
• Career regular season stats: 532 GP, 113-327-440
  
• Career playoff stats: 86 GP, 17-34-51
  
• Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 394/410
  
• Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Gomez is a brilliant, durable playmaker - a true first-line center when paired with an elite goal scorer.
  
• Why he's not: His $5 million salary this season means that he'll be due for a raise when he hits free agency, and for all the talk about Gomez's playmaking skill, he's never had 60 assists in a season (three players are better than that already this season). Is $5.5 million or more really a wise deal for a guy who has only once had a season where he was better than a point-per-game?
  

From a quick glance at the above and my gut impressions of the four, I'd rank them Drury, Datsyuk, Gomez, Briere in terms of how they'd fit what the Caps are doing, but I don't think I'd be too upset with any of those first three.

Having attempted to wrap our minds around that, here's one last thought to blow it all up - what about going the Restricted Free Agent route and using the money saved on a rightwing or a big name defenseman (who the Caps will certainly target anyway)? Sure, you would be giving up some picks, but with all of the prospects the Caps will have compiled by then and names like Derek Roy, Mike Cammalleri, Mike Ribeiro and Pierre-Marc Bouchard on the market, isn't it at least a little tempting?